Lebanon has changed dramatically over the past five years. The February 14, 2005 assassination of the former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri turned the political landscape on its head in Lebanon with large protests and demonstrations that forced Syria to end its three decades-old military presence.
But while many hoped that the departure of the Syrians and the elections would herald a rosier future for the country, a series of bloody bombings brought back memories of Lebanon’s darkest days during the civil war. Five years on, political uncertainty still portraying the future of Lebanon and “the truth”, that Lebanese came together to demand is still not fully known.
Special Tribunal for Lebanon
For supporters of Rafiq Hariri, the international tribunal on the assassination of Lebanon's former prime minister is the key for uncovering who was behind the suicide bombing that killed him and 22 others. Hariri’s assassination, for many Lebanese, was sealed when he spoke out against an extension to the mandate of Lebanon’s former pro-Syrian president Emile Lahoud. (Global Policy 21 March 2007) Others are still skeptical that Syria was behind the bloody deed. Five years after the killing, no one has been charged, and the progress in trials has been very slow.
There are growing concerns among Lebanese that the tribunal will not produce any accusations any time soon. In his opinion piece for the Daily Star, Michael Young argues that Hariri tribunal is dying. He states, “The Lebanon tribunal is not yet dead, but it seems very nearly there, amid embarrassing indifference in Beirut…The supreme insult is to be told that justice will come when everything points to the contrary.”
Political Struggle
Many experts believe that Lebanon is more divided right now than it was on the eve of Hariri’s assassination. The assassination united the nation as various parties in the ruling coalition came together during the so-called “Beirut spring” -pro-democracy demonstrations. But it seems that the nation has moved further apart since then. The sectarian divisions are felt much deeper in the aftermath of Hariri's killing with the emergence of two main camps among the sects that make up the Lebanese society.
The first camp, backed by Washington, includes the majority of Sunni Muslims including “Future faction” which leaded by Saad Hariri, the son of Hariri, Druze and Christians under the guidance of Lebanese Forces chief Samir Geagea. Hezbollah, a Shiite Muslim political group forms the backbone of the second camp. It is composed of the majority of Shiite and Christians loyal to General Michel Aoun.
The uncertainty surrounding Lebanon’s future has been exemplified by the political struggle between these two parties. The 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah intensified the debate over whether the Shiite militant group should be allowed to keep its weapons or not. Meanwhile, Hezbollah continues to resist calls for it to disarm and its militiamen continue to preside large parts of southern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley.
Last December, the Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri, who accused Syria of being behind the assassination of his father, visited Damascus for the first time since the 2005 killing. The meeting between Hariri and the Syrian President Bashar Assad is seen an opportunity to change the course of relations between the two countries. Experts believe that Hariri's visit will help bring the two major political parties closer after years of tension that almost drove the country into a civil war. Others argue that had the international tribunal on the assassination of Lebanon's former prime minister found evidence to convict Syria, Hariri would not be visiting Damascus. (Gulf News, 21 December 2009)
Lebanon: Ideological Battleground
Despite the fact that the relations between the Syria and Lebanon seem to be improving, political analysts warn that Lebanon has again become an ideological battleground where foreign powers – United States, France and Saudi Arabia on one hand, Syria and Iran on the other – use local actors as pawns in their struggle for influence.
It seems that the future of Lebanon, a country of four million people, depends on the actions of others rather than on the Lebanese themselves.
Badar Salem - Badar is a freelance journalist based in Dubai, UAE. She has a BA in Journalism and Political Science from BirZeit University in Palestine ...
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